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There has been increasing speculation and indication that both the United States and China may be preparing for war directly against each other or indirectly through other countries. Though military positioning and political manoeuvring is nothing new for the two countries indications from spending activity and military exercises seem to be escalating the tension. If history is any indication, it will only be a matter of a few years before the two countries find themselves on opposite sides of a live battle arena.

There has been increasing speculation and indication that both the United States and China may be preparing for war directly against each other or indirectly through other countries. Though military positioning and political manoeuvring is nothing new for the two countries indications from spending activity and military exercises seem to be escalating the tension. If history is any indication, it will only be a matter of a few years before the two countries find themselves on opposite sides of a live battle arena.

Two hot points for Chinese territorial expansion continue to be firstly, their occupation of Tibet and secondly their desire to occupy Taiwan. Over the years there has been great public support around the world for China to free the Tibetan people. There has also been increasing concern over China’s military positioning in the Taiwan Strait.

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In 1996 as Taiwan’s presidential elections neared, tensions in the Taiwan Straits reached new levels when China in March test fired missiles. The Taiwanese claimed that the mainland was attempting to influence voting in the Taiwanese election through a show of force. The United States responded by sending warships into the straits with what became the largest show of American naval force since the Vietnam War. American president Bill Clinton ordered aircraft battle groups to patrol the area, thereby allowing the election to proceed without interference.

In 2008 China increased its military spending by 17.6 percent increase to $61 billion.  The following year U.S. National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair told lawmakers that China’s double-digit annual percentage military spending increases “pose a greater threat to Taiwan…Unless Taiwan does something about it, then we’re really the only other country helping them do it….That means we’re going to have to help them some more in order to maintain balance.”

The tension arises from China’s military focus on Taiwan with hundreds of missiles aimed at the self-governing Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory. American arms sales to Taiwan are an ongoing source of U.S.-China tension. The Beijing administration was infuriated by the Bush administration’s announcement in 2008 of a US$6.5 billion arms package for Taiwan. The U.S. even hinted it would come to Taiwan’s aid if mainland forces invaded.

A study published by Foreign Policy magazine in February of 2010 comes to the conclusion that Taiwan remains the place in the world where the United States and China “could conceivably come into direct conflict.” The author of the report, Drew Thompson, director of China studies at the Nixon Centre in Washington, stated “Some wonder whether China and the United States are on a collision course. Unquestionably, there is deep strategic mistrust between the two countries. China’s rapid economic growth, steady military modernization and relentless nationalistic propaganda at home are shaping Chinese public expectations and limiting possibilities for compromise with other powers.”

In 2011 China once again announced it has increased its military spending, this time by 12.7 percent. This author details the concerns from nearby countries in “Is China Increasing Its Military Spending to Prepare for War?

During this year’s Libyan war, China lied about its role and position with Libya. This is part of China’s plan to grow its arms dealings internationally. Read the details in “China Now Closer to War, Tried to Sell Arms to Gadhafi while Claiming Neutrality.”

Meanwhile, the United States appears to be preparing for a war with China by investing in the development of technology that seems to have the purpose of effectively striking China from mainland America within minutes of launch. This author discusses this technology and the HTV-2 in “American Breaks Mach 20 Speed in Preparation for War with China.”

Given the heavy cost to both the United States and China in a war over Taiwan some western military leaders believe that it would be irrational for China to lead into a war. However, retired Rear Admiral Eric McVadon (once served as a naval attache’ in Beijing) who is currently senior advisor of Asia-Pacific studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis in Cambridge, Massachusetts believes that Beijing is capable of acting irrationally when it comes to Taiwan, “They are obsessed with Taiwan. On some given day, it’s entirely possible for people to be standing around a table in the Politburo in Beijing, and someone gets the ball rolling. And when it stops, we’re at war.”

Add to this the increased Chinese internet espionage and spying activity alleged by various governments and their agencies and it is not difficult to see how many individuals of influence believe that military conflict between China and the United States is likely to occur. Some believe such a conflict can occur as early as 2015.

The matter is complicated, and perhaps even encouraged further by the complex trade and financial relationship between China and America. If history is any indication, in military conflict with America the Chinese government is likely to freeze all assets of American citizens, entities and ventures in China. Military conflict will certainly come with a steep price for everyone involved, but especially for those that have ventured into Chinese partnerships.

Related Articles:

American Breaks Mach 20 Speed in Preparation for War with China

“Is China Increasing Its Military Spending to Prepare for War?”

Are America and China Preparing for War?”
“China Now Closer to War – Tried to Sell Arms to Gadhafi While Claiming Neutrality”

“Japan May Have Dominant Territorial Claim over Taiwan”

“China Upset with U.S. over Upgrade of Taiwan Fighter Planes – a Step Closer to War”