Barack Obama Will be the President of the United States
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The US election started with New York Senator Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite. Many things have changed and the Democrats have a presumptive nominee in Senator Barack Obama. He fended off strong challenges. The strongest challenge remains but his advantages outweigh his disadvantages and will therefore become the next president of the United States. Senator McCain’s age is a major disadvantage. This combined with the facts that he has no new ideas, draws smaller crowds, has less funds and less support make him unelectable.
The Background
Barack Obama was born in Hawaii on the 4th day of August 1961. He graduated from Columbia University in 1983 and moved to Chicago in 1985 where he worked to help the poor improve their living conditions. He graduated from Harvard Law School in 1991 and became the first African American president of the Harvard Law Review.
Barack and Michelle are the spouses of one another and they have two school aged daughters from their marriage.
In 2004 he was elected to the Senate and was sworn into office on the 4th. Day of January 2005. He serves on many committees but I have selected to mention the few which will help propel him into the presidency later this year. He serves on the Health, Education, Labour and Pensions Committee. This committee oversees America’s health care system and policies, education, (schools), employment, and retirement programs. He is a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. This committee oversees and directs American Foreign policy. Senator Barak Obama also serves on the Veterans’ Affairs Committee which focuses on providing veterans the care and services they deserve for serving the US. From 2005 to 2006 he served on the Environment and Public Works Committee. This committee safeguards environmental interests and provides funding for highways.
Barack Obama won a grueling nomination process of the Democratic Party against my favourite candidate Ms. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Barack has dedicated his life to public service at different levels. He was community organizer and a civil rights attorney. He is still fighting for working families from his position of Senator of the State of Illinois.
Barack Obama was born on August 4th, 1961, in Hawaii to Barack Obama, Sr. and Ann Dunham. Obama graduated from Columbia University in 1983, and moved to Chicago in 1985 to work for a church-based group seeking to improve living conditions in poor neighbourhoods plagued with crime and high unemployment. In 1991, Obama graduated from Harvard Law School where he was the first African American president of the Harvard Law Review.
Senator Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States due to a combination of skills, the failures of President Bush, a weak and old Republican nominee who is entrenched in Viet Nam Era Politics.
Senator Obama will be elected as President of the United States this November unless he is assassinated. If he is assassinated then Senator McCain will be president of the United States.
At the start of the nomination process Senator Obama was just one of many candidates who had filed his papers to contest for nomination by the Democratic Party. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton was the clear favourite. She had the largest amount of money, name recognition, a well lubricated election machinery, an ex-President of the United States, good looks, political connections, insider information and clout needed to clinch the nomination of the Democratic Party. In the end all this came to nothing because Senator Obama was able to better on each of these issues and had extra “political capital” to spare.
Political capital is a new term which means the goodwill, the emotional and dollar investment of the ordinary voter in a candidate standing for election. The key word “ordinary voter” as opposed to corporate supporters, lobbyists, and special interest groups. There is no direct data of this type which would support that Senator Obama will win the elections. However a review of incidental data like number of ordinary contributors and total dollars contribute suggest that Senator Obama is slightly ahead on this measure.
I note that both candidates are distancing themselves from lobbyists and special interest groups.
History of Age Factor
Average ages of elected presidents ranged from 55 to 59 years. Younger presidents were elected in turbulent times (for change) and older presidents were elected in economically stable times (for stability).
Senator Obama was born in 1961. He is now 47 years old. By comparison Senator McCain was born in 1936. He is now a fit 72 years old who is well past his prime and the legal retiring age. Will this be a factor during the voting process. My gut feeling is that it will be. I would not want a one term president. What age would he be when he comes up for re-election. Yes, he has lots of experience, connections and talks well in town hall formats. Do these abilities make him equivalent to a 47 year old?
My conclusion is that Senator Obama is more electable at this time. If the economy was good and the times were stable then Senator McCain may have a slight edge even though he is well past his prime. Right now the economy is not stable and the world is in political turmoil so Senator Obama is definitely more electable.
Senator McCain. Victim of connectedness to President Bush’s Policies. If the economy was thriving and the world was politically stable then Senator McCain would have been more electable despite his age.
Political Connectedness
Today’s voters are looking for the internet communicator, who can think of the future; is not connected to the past failures or a present failed president with a rating of the low thirties. Gunboat diplomacy worked in the Vietnam Era now is the time for nano diplomacy. Senator McCain has supported the failed policies of President Bush and Washington insiders. He has promised more of the same. This connectedness makes Senator McCain less electable even though he has more experience. In this context “the experience” and maturity are working against senator McCain.
Race Factor
Senator Obama is of mixed parentage. His father is a Black Kenyan from Nyangoma-Kogelo and his mother a White American form Wichita, Kansas. If the voting population voted along colour lines then Senator McCain is a clear winner. This is not likely to happen because American Society is becoming colour blind. The evidence for this is in the shopping complexes and in the fact that Senator Obama has reached where he has.
A cursory look at the people in shopping plazas will show that the numbers of mixed marriages, the number of Hispanics and the numbers of Black people is on the increase. This translates into acceptance of mixed marriages by the masses and more particularly by the younger American population. It is true that a “black” person has never been elected to office of the President of the United States. However, the changing demographics make it a real possibility for a Black person to be elected to this Office for the first time. Hence, on this factor I score Senator Obama as electable but Senator McCain the clear winner.
Senator McCain was born to both White parents in Panama an area under US Occupation. This is not an issue. Yes, being White gives him a significant advantage in a white “dominant society.” Senator McCain wins on this measure.
No US president has even been black or of black parentage. So Senator McCain is more electable. Given the changing demographics and the fact that “White US” is going to change to “Hispanic US” it is time for the top office to change hands to reflect the population demographics.
US Citizenship
If one were to follow what left wing and right wing media are reporting then both candidates would be ineligible to run for the presidency of the United States. Both candidates are eligible for this office and both have proven their credentials to the satisfaction of the average voter.
Both candidates satisfy this criterion but of course senator McCain now qualifies to be a senior citizen and will be entitled to discounts associated with being senior.
Honesty and Integrity
One does not need to be a psychologist to identify good behaviour and bad behaviours. Both candidates have shown maturity, integrity and honesty when dealing with substantial issues. The supporters of both candidates have gone a little beyond a reasonable call of duty (sometimes). My feeling is that these behaviours were due to over enthusiasm as opposed to deliberate manipulative intents.
Both teams have done well and continue to do a good job Both campaigns have been well run with good managers and crew.
Popular Support
Senator Obama is better received by bigger crowds of persons. Senator McCain’s campaign has labelled this “celebrity status.” Senator McCain has been campaigning for a long time, he has lost the “celebrity status” because he has run out of new ideas. I conced I am guessing because I do not have statistics to support this view.
My conclusion is that Senator Obama has more new ideas, enthusiasm, and has nont sold out yet. Hence, he continues to get lots of popular support.
Popular Financial Contributors
Many people who honestly support a candidate are willing to make a small contribution to their chosen candidate. Both candidates have surpassed previous limits of political donations. Neither candidate is relying on government money to finance the election campaign.
Senator McCain has raised less money than Senator Obama. This is a good indicator of who has more support. Senator McCain has fewer supporters but his supporters have deep pockets. Obviously they will expect some form of payback.
Senator Obama’s supporters are the masses and they too will expect a payback. Nothing is ever free. However, it is clear that Senator Obama has more grass roots support.
Voter Turnout
Poorer voters tend to vote less frequently than well heeled voters. So Senator McCain’s supporters are more likely to vote. My conclusion on this point is that if senator Obama’s election machinery can get the vote out then he can win the election because he has more grass roots support.
Drive and Enthusiasm
Senator Obama has more of this popular appeal. I guess this is due to the fact that he is new on the campaign trail and is comfortable talking with the masses. His job as a Lecturer in the Law School must be helping him in this area. Senator McCain has run out of steam and is not able to draw crowds.
Conclusion
This will be a closely contested election. There will be many ups and downs before the final count and the announcement. If Senator Obama is not assassinated then he will win and move into the White House next year. He will become the First Black President of the United States. With the shifting demographics he could be the first in a line of Black / Hispanic presidents. From another perspective, President George Bush will be the last White President in the White House of a White America. This is the beginning of a major demographic shift.
God Bless America!
21 Comments
Great Article Shergill.
Well, no one knows for sure until all the votes have been counted. But yes, I think Obama has a fighting chance in this election. Let’s see what happens. Cool article!
-Verniel Cutar
http://www.triond.com/users/Verniel+Cutar
Dear gentlehorizons,
This is my prediction. Senator Obama will have to make a major mistake to lose this race. If the times were good and Senator McCain was 55 year old he would have had a better chance.
This is a very convincing argument, Shergill. I don’t know if you’re right, but I have to say one thing, if America votes for Obama ( a man who’s clearly qualified and ready to be President),overlooking the fact that he’s mixed race, a lot of people in the rest of the world would change their view of Americans being a ‘nation of racists’.
I think that the world is now waiting and looking on to see what step the American people are going to take next!
Good Day Anne,
Barak Obama will be president if he is not murdered. America’s demographics are shifting. It is less racist now than it was a few years ago. Part of this is attributed to cross marriages.
I have only looked at a few factors pointing to Obama’s will. Many other factors too indicate he will win.
Yes he scores low on the “mixed marriage card.”
He will be president.
Shergill.
I also stand in support of Mr. Obama and this article convinces me that not only my heart but my mind as well has enough reasons to favour the favourite leader of the world. wonderful article!
Shergill,
You write good articles. Please consider writting as a fulltime career.
Senator Obama has already made a couple mistakes, BIG ONES.
1) He crossed the Clintons. They are giving lip service but they will screw him in the back room. Hilliary has only one more chance to be prez before she is too old, that is in 2012. If obama wins in 2008 she has no chance. Bill wants back in the white house, screwing interns and campaign workers is fun, and a democrat politician sport. (Mary Jo Kopechne – Ted Kennedy, now John Edwards)
2) Jeremiah Wright. He has not seen the end of this debacle.
3) He failed to gag Michelle. She is more a liability than the Clintons or Wright because he can;t get rid of her. Wait till the DVD with her racial remarks surfaces in late October and the one that shows B. Hussein Obama was in church when Wright said “God … America”.
4) He has no credentials to be president.
5) He threw Clarence Thomas under the bus. Bad move. His Afroamerican numbers will drop from 94% to 87 in the next coulple of days. One comment here, 94% of afroamericans is 9% of the american electorate… You need over 50% of the electorial college. He needs to win white women and white men, and he is alienating them at a rapid rate.
Thank You for raising these issues. Nothing is ever absolutely certain. Based on my claculations. Barak Obama will be president. I stand by my analysis.
When I read between the lines I note that you are not a Democrat, you have a dislike for the Democrats and You believe that Barak is a Muslim.
Finally, You believe that the voting public is ignorant of these facts. The voting public may know more than you and me. They will decide on what is best for them.
Barak Obama is better then 72 yr old Senator McCain. That is the only choice that the public has. That is the only choice that matters. I will assume Senator McCain has no skeletons in his closet. Absolutely none. The Republicans are good governors of the USA it is for that reason the we have such a good economy and it is getting better.
Barak Obama will be president. These are not grounds for me to revise my predictions. I predicted the fall of President two weeks ago. My prediction came true three days ago. I have predicted that Iran will have the atom bomb despite America’s dislike. India and Pakistan did it.
Shergill.
Obama CHOKED over the weekend. He is trailing by 5 in the polls, the ones that no democrat has ever won unless he has lead by more than 10% at this time.
CHOKE…..
What happens is simple, the democrat tripe and hype get old by November, the American people wake up….
If Obbama can’t remember if he voted for something, maybe it is he who is getting senile… Maybe he has Altzheimers. He doesn’t remember the irreverend Wright… He doesn’t remember that he didn’t vote against the war and he forgot he voted to fund it….
Where did he check his brains?
Good Day Ralph,
Thank You.
This is too petty for me to comment.
You are a true champion of what you believe in. You do not have the ability to appreciate another view point.
Keep up the good work.
More like the Clintons crossed Obama. Hilary had a great opportunity to be chosen as the VP candidate, but she squandered it by having such a public tit for tat with Obama–and then she waited too long to drop out even though it was obvious Obama was going to be the nominee.
Admittedly, Obama shot his potential Hillary votes to hell, but if Hillary supporters aren’t intelligent enough to distinguish between her and Palin, then I feel sorry for this country.
Good Day Ursula,
Good Comments and a fair assessment of the situation.
Have you read about a CBC report on the Palins. Bad Prents, refined ______ and much more.
You may wish to visit the CBC website. The author of that famous report is Heather Mallick. She is neither a Jew nor an Arab. Many right wing writers want to deport her to the Middle East.
No, he will not be presidetn.
It is becoming clear that my prediction is right on target.
Good Day JTK,
I appreciate you sharing your experiences with me. I do not believe in censorship. So I do not delete comments which contradict my views. I express my views and I hope others too can express their views in a non-threathening manner. We all win when we discuss our points of view.
I hope Ralph can learn from all this. I have just learned that Senator Obama has won the Presidential race. You can now see that I predicted this outcome in early August.
Thank you, once again.
Shergill, I was surprised to see the date of this article. You’re the only other person I’m aware of with the same unshakable intuition I had. I had an intuition back in the primaries that Obama would be the next president and it just got stronger and stronger, and from the moment McCain picked Palin, I saw McCain’s campaign shifting onto the track of a proverbial train-wreck. I was so sure Obama would win, I bet €50 on him 2 weeks before the election. It’s the only bet I have ever made in my life (I wanted to bet €200, but the limit was so low, at €50).
Now that the election is over, your prediction is correct! All the points you’ve presented here were right on the mark!
Everyone can predict the elections after they are over. What are you ramping and raving about? We all know that Obama is the Pesident elect. This is not a prediction.
Good Day BC Doan,
Thank you for your comments of 6th Nove 2008. You are right, I made the prediction on 3rd. Aug. 2008. If you have the time, please read Julia’s comment. She seems to think that I made the prediction after the elections. Most of America knows that the election date was the 4th. of November 2008.
Good Day Julia,
Thank You for reading and commenting on my article. The article was published on 3rd. Aug. 2008. This is three months before the US elections. The date of publication is stated below the title. It is the date which was inserted by TRIOND.com, not by myeslf.
I am in effect trying to tell you that the publication was not published after the election. Triond is a credible publication. It does not use misleading dates! I would not want to be part of an organization which was engaged in misleading practices.