Article Tools

With the Texas governor’s secessionist statements, and separatist sentiment on the rise in several states, it’s worth thinking about the consequences of leaving the American fold.

There has always been talk of secession in Texas. Joining the Union wasn’t universally popular when it happened, and once Lincoln gained the White House, the secessionists were successful in their quest to reverse that decision. When what many still know as “The War of Northern Aggression” was over, it wasn’t with glee that many saw the stars and stripes raised again. And while patriotism eventually swelled here in Texas for most, it has still never been universal. And now the separatists are gaining a wider audience. The “Secede” bumper stickers are more common, and Governor Perry has raised the issue at the highest level of state government.

While the odds of secession are still low, it is worth thinking through what would happen if it came to pass – especially since other states in Dixie are seeing similar rises in separatist sentiment. In short, the consequences for such states will be drastic in matters related to the economy, security, and civil society.

To begin with, as an independent nation, Texas would need to field an army bigger than its current National Guard and would also need to create both an intelligence service and a foreign affairs department. A patrolled border with Mexico and the United States would be necessary, and yet all the federal money and agents would disappear. Since we are currently relying on stimulus money for the solvency of the state government as well as for many local governments-and since that money would dry up with secession-a hefty tax or a huge debt would be required to keep state and local governments functioning and to establish these security and foreign policy measures.

And speaking of federal money, Texas receives a whopping amount of it. Among all 50 states, Texas is frequently near the top of the list of states most dependent on federal funds; in 2006, 35% of Texas’s total spending came from federal revenue, and in 2005, federal spending in Texas was around $149 billion, while state and local spending, combined, totaled $122 billion. In addition, since the beginning of FEMA’s record-keeping, Texas has received more federal disaster assistance than any other state. Also, Texas receives billions of dollars in federal defense dollars annually, ranking third, in 2005, behind California and Virginia. Also, as of 2007, nearly 125,000 Texans were employed by the federal government. And so, a byproduct of secession would be that these mammoth investments in the Texas defense industry would disappear, along with countless jobs, including the quarter-of-a-million Texans who would lose their employment with the federal government. Further, all federal money for highways, airports, and other forms of infrastructure would be withdrawn, and we would either have to do without these things or pay for them with increased taxes. Finally, Texas owns a share in the national debt. The thought that the state could simply wash its hands of that debt, especially when the lion’s share of it came from Presidents and Congresses for whom Texas voted, is naïve at best.

And how would the United States view the secession of Texas? In security terms, the United States would of necessity need to consider Texas a potential threat. Defense factories would remain in Texas, and it is no secret that Texas is awash in guns and ammunition. Not only could they field a formidable military, but the Governor could easily marshall an enormous militia. As a rational country, and one with a history of war with secessionist states, America would accordingly militarize the border, and in response, so would Texas. After a likely grace period for people to move in or out and declare their citizenship, the free movement of Texans in and out of the state would be limited the same way it is for citizens of any other foreign country.

And finally, and perhaps most potently, there would be cold, hard anger in and out of Texas. I, along with tens of millions of Americans, have had family and friends bleed and die for this country. Our aunts and uncles, sisters and brothers, daughters and sons, grandmothers and grandfathers, and wives and husbands have been handed a folded flag in rememberance of their sacrifices. Not the Michigan flag, the Indiana flag, or the Texas flag. The American flag. For any state to turn traitor is a slap in the face to all who have sacrificed. There may be violence. There may be an effort to root out native Texans from jobs within the government. There would certainly be a boycott of Texas goods, and America is a market of some 300,000,000 consumers.

And so, I would say to those who want secession – prepare for social upheaval; prepare for economic chaos; prepare for war.

Image via Wikipedia