The Day Castro Falls

Scholars have argued over the many plans for the reconstruction of Cuba once the existing communist government is no longer in power.  Some have exposed the physical destruction of the island’s infrastructure which has been dilapitating for almost 50 years now.  Others have express their concerns regarding the economic catastrophe that has become of the country.

Yet others have gone over the many scenarios involving civil unrest on the day after the Castro brothers and their cloonies are no longer in power.  All these points are of great validity and will have to be dealt with when the time comes.

On the economic front there are already many who have their eyes on the island and the potentialinvestments that will follow once the regime is no longer in power.  Some with an altruistic spirit and others no so selfless.  It is a fact that the Cuban economy has become a great disaster after being an important producer of sugar, tobacco, coffee etc. prior to 1959 it now imports all of this commodities to barely meet the basic needs of its people.

There are many options tossed around as a possible salvation on this front from the expected aid from the United States and the European Union to private capital from both American companies and private individuals including the economically strong south Florida Cuban American community.

Contrary to what many think the biggest challenge in a recovery effort in the post Castro’s era may not be economic or political but social.

Cuba is a small island occupied by close to twelve million people plus another million wandering around the globe.  Any society in order to succeed has to maintain an equilibrium amongst its people having many stratus of socio-economic levels.  The Cuban government misguidedby the Marx-Leninism doctrine has given its people if not in reality in their minds at least the vision we are all equals and everything belongs to everyone.

The country has an over educated population where most are professionals holding degrees in medicine, law, engineering, accounting etc.  A small country able to export its talent to every corner of the earth.  This only brings along an imbalance by creating a vacuum effect in the low end industries and agriculture.  No Cuban wants to work the land or be the one serving and producing for the rest.

How will the free market Cuba will be able to accomodate so many professionals without undermiding their importance and allowing them to make a descent living.

The next important issue to be dealt with by the next government in power is the family division that has taken place over the past five decades.  There are Cubans all over the world including Africa and Australia.  Those outside rightfully feel that Cuba still their motherland and many will return to claim what they consider belongs to them or their ancestors.

How will the next government handle those claims when many of the properties were either destroyed, given to others by the so called revolution or just occupied by large multifamily buildings or other state projects such as schools, hospitals or offices.

The Cubans in the island will to a great extent recent the return of their absentee compatriots when they never left the island and endured the cruelties and necessities of the system. A group of Cuban exiles in Miami have already created a registry of the properties ceased by the Cuban government with the intention of returning one day.  Will the Cubans left behind accept such claims without creating civil unrest.

The Cubans as people will have to consider the possibilities of an ex Cuban exile may become the next president of the country.  Obviously the mere fact that many Cubans have resided in the United States or other prosperous countries giving them an advantage in funds, connection and general democratic knowledge over their less privileged counter parts in the island.

Only time will tell how this issues are going to be dealt with and how long will it take for the first government in a free Cuba to resolve them.  One thing is for sure and that is the incomparable strengh of the Cuban people and their unyielding desire to be free and self-governing.