Is Hillary Finished? Yes, She is

Today, I write the third and final installment of “Is Hillary finished?” The answer is now, yes she is. We can conclude this after another two primaries in Kentucky and Oregon with another split which favors the person that is ahead, Obama. We can now conclude that Hillary is finished for the following reasons:

1. Hillary did nothing to catch up last night- She had a nice win in Kentucky and a loss in Oregon. To use our basketball analogy from weeks past, they “traded baskets” again. She is still down by 11, but there are less then 30 seconds left. It is too late for Obama to “blow it”, even if his wife says something stupid again. Obama will have trouble getting the Reagan Democrats and the poor white voters to support him in November, but he has won the nomination in spite of this.
2. The Democrats want this over- Most of the higher-ups in the Democratic party want this over and will rally to Obama, namely the last hold-outs of the superdelegates. Obama last night clinched the majority of pledged delegates. The superdelegates will not reverse the “will of the people”. Out of respect to Hillary, they may stay on the sidelines until the final primaries of June 3; I expect them, however, to shift to Obama in the numbers necessary to put him over the top. Much as I, a Republican and political junkie (John McCain too )would love to see the Democrats still fighting themselves in Denver in August, even they are smart enough not to allow themselves to. Even if they find a compromise to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida, two states Hillary won big, this will not allow Hillary to catch up with the proportionate allocation of the delegates.
3. 3. Hillary is holding out for what she really wants- I think that Hillary has been told by her husband, Terry McAuliffe, and her closest advisors that she is not going to win. She is going to make it look good to her supporters and continue her candidacy until the nomination is mathematically clinched. (You play the game until the clock hits triple 0 just as Mike Huckabee stayed in the Republican race until McCain mathematically clinched the nomination.) Knowing that she is not going to be President next year, the negotiations can begin to get what she wants as a second prize. Vice-President, Supreme Court appointment, Senate majority leader? I am not sure. However, for someone that was certain last year to get the nomination, she needs to “save face” and make a graceful exit. I can only speculate that the terms of Hillary’s “surrender” are being negotiated. It is certainly in Obama’s best interests to make the surrender look good. Should Hillary make a formal withdrawal from the race? That is up to her. Many candidates who were even more behind than her took their fight all the way to the convention. This will include Ron Paul at the Republican convention this summer. Has the clock hit triple zero? No, but as Don Meredith always said on Monday Night Football when the game was in hand, “Turn out the light, the party’s over.” Obama has won the Democratic nomination for President.