The John Mccain – Barack Obama Presidential Debate: A Preview on Substance and Style

John McCain and Barack Obama are scheduled to debate foreign policy and national security issues on Friday, September 26, 2008, at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time at the University of Mississippi. The candidates are unlikely to present any surprising changes of position at this debate, and the candidates’ substantive messages on foreign policy and national security will not cause any voter to change his or her vote on a candidate. The candidates’ messages on foreign policy and national security are well known and well reviewed by the mainstream media. Therefore, the real importance of this debate is not on substance but on style and appeal. The candidates’ personalities and communication styles will have the greatest impact on voter attitudes.

With the presidential race so close, and the policy platforms of the candidates so well advertised on the candidate’s websites, the only wild card in the debates will be personal appeal and presidential demeanor. Furthermore, the candidate’s personas are so well known, that this debate is an opportunity for each candidate to improve his persona in front of the national audience.

Barack Obama is known for providing long-winded, sophisticated analyses of foreign policy and national security issues so Obama will likely try to present a more decisive persona more fitting of a president of the United States, rather than befitting a political science professor. John McCain on the other hand, known for providing testy, feisty responses particularly when irritated, will try to present a more thoughtful, considered persona. Both will try to moderate the aspect of their delivery that is most negative. This over-riding element in the debates will contribute to a rather tepid, lukewarm debate without much promise for new insights about the candidates.

The candidates will address issues that have already been debated in public for months: the Iraq War, Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, a China policy, a policy on Russia, global warming, international terrorism, our relations with Europe, and international trade. None of those issues offers a fertile ground for surprising policy initiatives. John McCain is the most interventionist and favored the troop surge in Iraq. Barack Obama voted against the Iraq War, but supported intervention in Afghanistan. The most controversial topic is how to handle nuclear proliferation and what to do about Iran: should the U.S. continue to work through the United Nations or should the U.S. take unilateral action against the Iranian regime.

Accordingly, within what promises to be a very uninspiring debate, the candidates will focus on form and not substance. Viewers will be left with a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates based on their delivery and personality rather than on the substance of the issues debated. Absent the candidate’s views on Iran, there is likely to be little new in the way of policy recommendations. The debate will be an acting rehearsal rather than a debate on policy, and that promises to be a dull debate.