Hugo Forever

Most citizens of Venezuela supported Hugo Chavez’s constitutional amendments, that would allow the president to be reelected infinitely many times in a row. By that, Chavez, that recently “celebrated” his 10-year anniversary as the leader of Venezuela, can take part in the coming elections of 2012. And if he will win, he will stay as a president until at least year 2019.

After having counted 94 percent of the votes, the electoral commission announced the preliminary results: 54 percent voted for the abolition of the restriction of reelections, while the other 46 – against. Around 17 million people took part in this vote, but still, around a third of the electorate chose to ignore the referendum. The opposition has already admitted it’s loss. It’s representatives said that they did the best they could, even if they were working under the harsh conditions of pressure from the government. The present international observers didn’t notice any infringements.

The success on the referendum became a big festivus for the supporters of Chavez – the Chavistas, that partied and danced away the night, firing petards and fireworks, screaming “Chavez isn’t going away!”. The president himself went out on the balcony of his residence, and gave a passionate 2-hour speech, that was translated by all TV-channels of the country, as the law demands. Chavez considered the results of the referendum as an necessary condition for the development of the revolution and the building of Bolivarian socialism in the 21st century. He also stated that the “old soldier” is going to propose his candidature on the 2012 elections, “if the people and god will please that”.

Hugo Chavez read the letter by Fidel Castro (that was the first to congratulate him with the victory) to his supporters, and recited Simon Bolivar: “God gives victory to the persistent”, – vaguely reminding about the fail of the previous referendum that took place December 2007, when the same amendments were declined by the people. Chavez managed to revenge. Still, it’s not possible to state that there was a change in the people between the referendums. The differences between the supporters and opponents of the reforms didn’t grow much; and the number Chavez’s opponents is quite  impressive – 51 % in 2007 and 46 % in 2009.

His victory could mostly be credited to the wide agitational campaign with the slogan “Yes!”. Also, if Chavez’s supporters swung too far in 2007, by suggesting amendments to 69 articles in the constitution, in 2009 the number of amendments was decreased to 5, which made the political program more understandable to the average citizen, that in turn made it more popular. To smoother the shock of the opposition, not only the president can be reelected, but any other official, including the ones from the opposition, whose leader, Antonio Ledezma, is the current governor of the capital city, Caracas. Finally, Chavez did a very good move, almost personifying the goals of the referendum and placing his political achievements as a president on top. 

Out of the obvious and indisputable achievements of Chavez, first of all the lowering of poverty in general should be seen. Even the opposition admits that Chavez could make the social question the center of the government’s politics. Among his popular programs are the ones on the abolition of illiteracy in all social classes, no matter the gender or age, the introduction of scholarships for universities, the creation of cheap supermarket chain “Mercal”, etc. All this lead to the fact that for the last 5 years, the amount of people living in poverty in Venezuela dropped from 54 to 27 percent, and the unemployment rate dropped below 10 percent.

Obviously, all social programs made by Chavez were dependent on the income from oil. Venezuela is the fourth biggest exporter of oil in the world. Until recently, the constantly rising prices for hydrocarbons also increased the income. But in the failing conditions on the oil market and the overall drop in economic activity, caused by the world-wide financial crisis, the economic base for Bolivarian socialism and with it the political popularity of Chavez himself might get shaky. Finally, the amendments that allow Chavez to go to reelections don’t mean that he will definitely win. Still, the opposition doesn’t have any leader that is compatible in charisma with the “red bull”, but everything might change in the coming 3 years. It’s not good to try to predict what will happen in a such long time, looking at the current events.