The Past, the Present and the Future: Consequences of American Foreign Policy

American Foreign Policy is and has always been driven by special interest groups. This is not anything new and is not likely to change in the near future. In the 1960s special interest groups were able to create “The Viet Nam Saga”. The excuses then were, “Communists, Chinese and Russians”. The excuses now are, “Saddam Hussein regime, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Lack of Democracy”. The Americas pulled out of Viet Nam in shame and disgrace but declared victory to make it look palatable to the American masses at home. Now, the whole process will be repeating in Iraq. (My prediction)

There are many special interest groups in each and every country. They have useful functions in society. However, when these special interest groups are able to use their power to manipulate foreign policies of a major power then something needs to be done about it. This type of behavior is pathological i.e. like a cancer. Doing something or anything is not easy. First, the power concerned needs to be able to recognize that a problem exists. This is not likely to happen because America does not see anything wrong with its foreign policy. The scenario is not unlike a depressed person. The depressed person does not see that he/she is depressed even though every one else sees it (the depressed look). So it is not likely that American Foreign Policy will change in the near future.

To obtain a greater understanding of this point of view please see:

Face of Depression

Depression Two

Face of Depression Three

Picture: A Depressed President Bush. Failed foreign policies.

During the 1970s the fear of Communism took priority over all else. Human Rights and Human dignity were violated by both the Pro-communist lobby (mainly Russia, China and Cuba) and the American Armed Forces in the name of Democracy. Washington could not see that the entire country side was sympathetic toward the Viet Cong and the Communists. They were content with occupying their bases in big cities. Now too the Americans are not seeing that. Somehow, other countries and other people saw it then and are seeing it. Many countries that joined the war against “Weapons of Mass Destruction/ Saddam Hussein Regime/Lack of Democracy” have pulled out of the Coalition. Mr. Bush still does not see any error in his ways or any error in American Foreign Policy. Senator McCain actually says that The War CAN be won.

American Public opinion is against the war. British Public opinion is against the war. The writing is on the wall. It has been a long time since the Republicans won any seats but they still do not get the message. Lobbying of Senators and Congressmen must be stopped to give American foreign policy a fair chance at success. Some would argue that the opponents of special interest groups should form their own lobby and advance their point of view.

In the 1960s special interest groups including many US presidents were convinced that “the Communists” had to be stopped at all costs. American, British, and French might was not able to stop Communism. Yes, communism did fall eventually. Many groups and individuals in America would like to take credit for the fall of communism. However, I do not feel that any special person or group deserves any credit for the fall of communism, not even President Ronald Regan who is credited with ending the “Cold War”. I strongly feel that ordinary people were responsible for the demise of communism. The ordinary people of Viet Nam were responsible for the demise of America in Viet Nam. My prediction is the same for American Forces in Iraq. America is winning the big cities, the bases and the Green Zones. It is losing the hearts and souls of ordinary people. Eventually it is the ordinary people who will decide the outcome.

America is an occupying force in Iraq. The American Government is trying to say that they have been invited there by a democratically elected government. Ordinary people know the truth. Eventually, they will decide. The Americans did the same in Viet Nam. Somehow, American Presidents always think that ordinary people do not have brains and that they can manipulate them through the use of Press Conferences and the Media.

Manipulation takes many forms. The use of salaried soldiers and then saying that they volunteered to fight in the Middle East is a highly refined form of manipulation. Yes, paid soldiers are highly trained to fight wars using highly technical techniques. In the past occupation of land was the main goal. The present reality is that minds have to won too. Otherwise the war will be lost. America is winning the war of real estate but is losing the hearts and soles of ordinary people. I am predicting that America will lose the war in Iraq because it has lost the “Hearts and Souls of Ordinary People”. The Ordinary People of Iraq are intelligent people. They do not have military might to force the American Forces out of Iraq but they have more commitment then the American Forces have to win. They will use all other means to drive them out – just like the Vietnamese / Communists because they were born there and had loyalty to the land. The paid soldier works for (more or less) eight hours then clocks off and counts his dollars. The Freedom fighter is dedicated 24 hours each day, does not get paid and does not clock off. He waits and strikes at the right moment. Time is always on his side. Loyalty does not come from a pledge or from a certificate of competence to kill or shoot.

When a paid soldier dies the family mourns because it is a loss to the family and the country. Friends and family will think of avoiding war. Even if they felt that they supported the cause they may not be allowed to join the war for many other reasons. When a freedom fighter dies the situation is different. Friends and family members are often willing to take his place because they do not want his sacrifice to be in vain. So each time an innocent Iraqi dies there are others who are willing to take his place. Each time an American soldier dies others are put off by the thought of dying in a far-away-land. President Bush chose not to serve in Viet Nam for this very reason. However, he is now the commander in chief and is comfortable sending others to fight for the “?freedom” of others. In the long run it is the ordinary people who are going to win the war not the paid soldier.

Picture: American foreign policy in need of resuscitation. Nosocomial infections are killing it?

In order to predict the outcome of a war many analysists look at numbers of trained personnel, support staff, supply lines, tanks, ammunitions, numbers of fighter aircrafts, spying ability and night vision equipment and other capabilities. I concede that my analysis is completely different. Some will call my method insane. However, the proof is in the pudding, the result.

The world was led to believe that the war in Iraq was started to get rid of the Weapons of Mass destruction. There were none so there was nothing to get rid off. My analysis is that the war was started to protect the long term interests of Israel. Tel Aviv, using it’s special interest groups, managed to convince Washington that the survival of Israel was at stake. Washington then went about manufacturing excuses to invade Iraq. Now they need to make a similar case against Iran. Iran is openly building the nuclear power stations with the view to manufacturing the atom bomb. However, my view is that Tel Aviv has overplayed it strength and will not succeed this time.

In conclusion, I am predicting that the following will be the end results of a faulty American foreign policy. The disasters could have easily been prevented by working on humanitarian issues (winning the minds of people) as opposed to winning wars and real estate. Human Minds are the where the power of the future will be not in real estate.

My Predictions

1. America will withdraw from Iraq within three years. They will do it in style, just like the British. First they will declare that they have achieved their objectives in Iraq. The world will be able to see the fall from grace. Popular press will not report it as a fall. They will be reporting as a planned draw down of forces.
2. The withdrawal will make Iran stronger in that region and it will damage America’s global standing as a Global Power. New additional players in the Region will be Syria, Iran and Lebanon.
3. Iran and Iraq will become allies within five years to the detriment of American Foreign Policy and to the detriment of Israel.
4. Hezbollah has been gaining strength and will continue to gain strength. It will become the major player in the Middle East and subsequent negotiations with Israel.
5. Iran will make the Atom Bomb within six years and will not threaten Israel. It will not attack Israel.
6. After acquisition of the bomb Iran will become more reasonable will follow most main stream policies because there will be nothing to “proof”. The Atom Bomb is just another big boy’s toy. It will allow Iran to be on equal footing with the big boys.
7. Israel will (at last) consider giving back lands to the Palestinians and allowing them to return to their lands. This will only happen when there is no other alternative or Israel. Prior to that I expect Israel to continue killing Palestinians and I expect the Palestinians to continue fighting for their lands.
8. There will be no peace in the Middle East until the rights of the Palestinian People are restored. The United Nations, President Bush or Mr. Abbas do not have the right to give away lands which they do not own.
9. Israel will have to change its policy to one of friendly coexistence or non-existence. White South Africa became a Black South Africa without any adverse effects.
10. Israel will become a Middle East Country in the Middle East. It will cease to be a satellite of Washington. This will happen within twelve years.