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Ever heard of Abkhazia? Thought not! However, the world must sit up and take notice of this small republic that borders Russia as events there come to a head.

Most people in 1914 had not heard of Sarajevo, but that all changed after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand when the continent of Europe was plunged in to a bloody four year conflict. So, perhaps it is wise to sit up and take notice of the country that no one has heard of. Say hello to Abkhazia.

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Abkhazia may sound like a made up place but it is very real. It is a small break away republic in Georgia and, if it has its own way, will become the next Kosovo, becoming a country in its own right. However, the national government of Georgia has very different ideas and this will inevitably lead to conflict. It only takes a little imagination and an unhealthy dose of pessimism, to foresee a new catastrophe in the making for Europe.

Abkhazia already ticks off many of the prerequisites for nationhood. It has its own president, flag and national anthem. It even operates its own visa system for visitors. However, a close inspection of any map will not reveal it as a country. However, since the bloody civil war of the 1990s it has functioned as a de facto independent state.

The local people – and the media – are actively working busily toward this final goal. Newspapers often accuse the west of a system of double standards, arguing that as Kosovo has been recognized, so should Abkhazia. Most western nations, however, are unlikely to recognize the small state as sovereign because it will violate Georgia’s borders. Plus, of course, why should countries like Spain recognize a nation when it would only lead to calls by its own minorities, notably the Basques, for independence of their own?

However, Abkhazia has an ally – and a powerful one at that. On many occasions Vladimir Putin has hinted that if the west recognizes Kosovo then Russia will go right ahead and recognize Abkhazia. In fact, if it was not for the support of Russia the local economy in Abkhazia would have disintegrated years ago. The state itself is the main reason for the poor relationship between Moscow and Tblisi. Although there are some imports from nearby Turkey, virtually everything that is sold in the republic comes from Russia.

Plus the Russian government has a big bone to pick with Georgia. Georgia has for many years been lobbying to join NATO and there is no way that the Russians will countenance this without doing something in retaliation. The vote in the Russian parliament of 22 March 2008 could not put matters any clearer. If Georgia joins NATO then Russia will officially recognize Abkhazia. Then all hell might break loose.

Most Abkhazians fear the worst. Georgia, helped by huge aid from the USA, has recently modernized its armed forces and is now in a situation of readiness to invade the breakaway region if they deem it necessary. The Abkhazian government claims stridently that the Georgians is planning a first strike offensive in the very near future, possibly in early spring.

However, if Georgia invades militarily they can most probably kiss any idea of NATO membership goodbye. Their membership is on the table for discussion at the summit in Bucharest in April 2008 and if they invade one of their own regions either before or after then Georgia will most certainly not be joining NATO.

Whatever happens in the near future, expect the name Abkhazia to become a household word very soon.