The Saffron Revolution

General Than Shwe, the head of the Burmese military junta, is a paranoid and apparently ruthless dictator. While there is reason to believe that other members of the junta might prove amenable to compromise and change, it is Than Shwe who holds out for the maintenance of the military regime. That regime has been considerably strengthened in recent years by the discovery of oil and natural gas in Burma’s territory. These precious hydrocarbon resources now travel by pipeline to Thailand where they are sold on the open market. The resources have attracted important representatives of both the Indian and Chinese governments to the junta, solicitous of their interests and desiring to secure exclusive access to the black, liquid gold. In fairness, both China and India are also motivated by the desire to maintain peace and order in Burma and to avoid the presence of many thousands of refugees, possibly armed, in their territory.

China has long been the principal ally of the Burmese generals, shielding them from censure at the UN Permanent Security Council by judicious use of the veto and sending thousands of Chinese workers to build the infrastructure that might just help transform the Burmese economy from its disastrously ramshackle state of affairs. China has also contributed a hydroelectric power station which has made possible the extraordinary relocation of the capital to Naypidaw from Rangoon (Yangon). When it was first announced that the capital had suddenly been moved, there was widespread amazement across the region. Very few people have been permitted to visit the site of the new capital, which initially appeared to be just a few buildings in what had once been them idle of the jungle. Naypidaw now has accommodation blocks for civil servants and more impressive apartment buildings for senior officials. Ministry buildings have been completed on a standard basis, with Burmese motifs enhancing the architecture. There are precious few facilities for the civil servants who have been forced to uproot themselves and move halfway across the country. There are certainly very few opportunities for the notoriously poorly-paid junior civil servants to find ways to supplement their meagre incomes. No embassies have yet to move to the new capital and no businesses have been willing or, indeed permitted, to establish representative offices there. In terms of efficiency of governance, the move is as debilitating as it is mystifying. There is still speculation that paranoid Than Shwe feared invasion by sea from US forces, although that seems a remote possibility. Others have noted that Naypidaw is close to the location of one of the historical imperial capital sites and speculated that Rangoon is too much under the influence of the British colonialists. Others again talk about moving to a location closer to the centre of the country to be closer to all regions. In any case, the enormous expenditure of resources seems to be a wholly wasteful disaster.

The movement of the capital also means that the generals are far removed from the centres of protest in Rangoon, Mandalay and other important towns and cities in the country. Whether Than Shwe is still capable of being swayed by the sight of military goons attacking unarmed monks with batons and guns remains to be seen, although surely there are some among the junta who would be. However, they are not there. Even the UN Emissary, Ibrahim Gambari, is finding it difficult to gain access to the generals, although he has apparently been able to speak to democratically-elected prime minister Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been held under house arrest for years and who has never been permitted to take up her legal right to rule the country. Indeed, Than Shwe took over the country after a series of struggles among the military in 1993, when a more hard-line attitude towards the democratic process became evident. Now the military is trying to lock down the country, apparently having turned off internet and mobile phone connections and, according to its editor, launched a denial-of-service attack against the pro-democracy magazine The Irrawaddy (Irrawaddy). However, modern information technology has become so prevalent and the technical abilities of the Burmese military so ham-fisted compared to the nimble young people able to outwit them that it is almost impossible to prevent news leaking out these days. The atrocities that are being committed will become known and, at least so it is to be hoped, perpetrators will one day be punished.

Rumours are swirling around the expatriates in Thailand and the media that hundreds of monks were dragged out of their monasteries are placed in detention. People fear the real death toll is enormously higher than the nine or ten variously reported as having been acknowledged by the junta. International condemnation of the acts of violence has been patchy: US President George W Bush has been commendably vocal but his credibility is at a very low ebb after his various foreign and domestic policy escapades; European leaders are firm but compromised by the businessmen perfectly happy to come and do business where they can. India has been silent. It is China to which we look for a lead in these trying times.