Russia Enters New Dawn of Saber-rattling

Back in May 2001, Jeffery Taylor from the Atlantic newspaper wrote an article titled “Russia is finished.” In which he accounted to the fact of Russia’s downfall since the collapse of Communism. Due to it being plagued by political corruption, its weakening economy, demographic problems as well as regarding all the difficulties associated with Chechnya. It seemed, back then, that Russia was on the route to be shoved into geopolitical obscurity.

But six years on down the track things have changed dramatically; Russia has once again instigated growing concerns at the display of its military muscles being flexed. Under the leadership of the uncrowned tsar, Vladimir Putin, Russia has been transformed from its weakening status into an emerging superpower willing to compete for supremacy on the global scene. The Russian nation is drenched in oil money, and President Putin has declared that a staggering amount of $250 Billion will be invested to expanding its military infrastructure over the next few years. The question however is, who is this military build-up being aimed at? The underlying motivation behind the increase in military expenditure is to increase Russia’s ability to compete for global supremacy. As far as global opinions, only three superpowers exist, being comprised of the United States, China and Russia. However Putin has turned China into a strategic compatriot through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which recently conducted a war game located in the Ural Mountains involving 6,500 Russian troops. It was the first time in Russian-Chinese history that combined Russian-Chinese military war games was held on Russian soil.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization have been in existence for eleven years, and has often come under intense scrutiny from the West being labelled as a “club of dictators” – its members also include the authoritarian governments of former Soviet republics Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Sceptics from the U.S. government have likened it to the former Warsaw Pact that is aiming to act as a counter balance to NATO. Washington’s request for observer status within the organization was ceremoniously dumped by the SCO, while it welcomed Iranian participation. The SCO “is an incipient counterweight” to the U.S. and NATO, Kupchan says. “If they spike it with Iran, you’ve got something ugly.” Russian President Putin has forged alliances with China and Iran whom can collectively easily counter U.S. supremacy. A new era has dawned.

Likened to the Cold War from the past, Russia has becoming increasingly drastic in order to display their newfound assertiveness to the global community. On August 17 2007 Vladimir Putin announced to the world, Russia was to revive Soviet-era practice of sending bomber aircraft on regular patrols beyond its borders. “We have decided to restore flights by Russian strategic aviation on a permanent basis. Today, August 17 at 00:00 hours, 14 strategic bombers took to the air from seven airfields across the country, along with support and refueling aircraft … From today such patrols will be carried out on a regular basis.” Putin told reporters after inspecting joint military exercises with China and four Central Asian states in Russia’s Ural mountains.

Western military leaders alleged that during the past few months Russian flights near their airspace were becoming much too frequent after a long quiet period spanding nearly 15 years since the fall of the Soviet Union. Western military officials expressed their growing concerns regarding the flights as “a little bit of chest-pounding, trying to let people know Russia is back in the game”.

As Putin spoke to reporters and television cameras regarding his announcement, four Russian military helicopters appeared and hovered in the background as Russian tanks trundled behind him, even though the military exercises ended a long time before. Is Russia preparing for a war?

During the Cold War, Russian long-range bombers having the capabilities to carry strategic nuclear weapons were frequently playing games of cat-and-mouse with Western air forces. Early August, Russian air force generals boasted their bomber crews were capable of flying near the Pacific island of Guam, the location of a major U.S. military base with U.S. pilots having to scramble in order to track them. On other occasions in July, two Russian TU-95 “Bear” bombers made unusually long sorties over the North Sea, leaving Norway and Britain to scramble fighter jets in order to follow them. Western forces have not witnessed such a resurgence from Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

With Russian-U.S. relations on the verge of collapse over the U.S.’ amibtions on implementing a missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Putin warned that Russia would position its rockets close to the Polish border and point missiles at U.S. bases located throughout Europe if Washington continued in their aspirations to install the missile defense shield. The Bush Administration however reemphasized that the missile shield is to protect Europe against rogue missile attacks from nations such as Iran and North Korea, however Russians remain sceptic believing the missile shield to be aimed towards Russia. Russian deputy prime ministir Sergei Ivanov whom is the favorite to replace Putin as President in the 2008 elections, made it clear that Russia will be “forced to respond” should the U.S. continue.

“If our proposal is not accepted we will take adequate measures. An asymmetrical and effective response will be found,” he said. This response would include basing “new rocket forces in the European part of Russia” in the enclave of Kaliningrad, he said. The Russian missiles would be able to “parry the threats that will arise from the [US] missile defence system,” he added.

Mr Bush’s answer, however, was decidedly lukewarm. Although the president praised Mr Putin’s offer as “innovative and strategic”, he made it clear that Washington was likely to go ahead anyway with its missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. “As I told Vladimir, I think that the Czech Republic and Poland need to be an integral part of the system,” Mr Bush said.

It is believed by most experts that Russia will take an active military stance as a countermeasure to the U.S.’ European missile shield. This includes the targeting of U.S. military bases throughout central Europe with Iskandar missiles based in Kaliningrad. Russia is also busy in several phases of upgrading its nuclear missile arsenal, and are expected to deploy more missiles and mobile launchers to its borders while its fleet of nuclear submarines are all ready operating in the North Pole.

Tensions between Russia and Canada are also appearing to be spiralling downwards over the much disputed North Pole. An area rich of oil known to contain one third of the world’s oil reserves under the sea bed, are claimed by both Russia, Canada including other nations such as Denmark and Norway. However during a recent Russian expedition in early August, Russia planted a titanium flag of their nation on the sea bed deep beneath the icy glaciers claiming the disputed territory for themselves. This caused an enormous upheaval amongst the global community, while Canada have announced their aspirations to open two military bases in the region to strengthen their bid for the territory. A day after the North Pole was claimed by Russia they wasted no time in conducting military drills throughout the region, causing a further outcry from environmentalists. Russia has made it clear that they are back, and here to stay.

To the south Russian Navy Chief Admiral Vladimir Masorin announced Russia’s desire to boost their military presence throughout the Mediterranean by opening two naval bases in Syria. It is the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union that Russia will be opening military bases abroad outside of their nation.

“The Mediterranean Sea is very important strategically for the Black Sea Fleet,” Masorin told journalists in the Crimean port town of Sevastopol, the home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet despite being on Ukrainian territory. “I suppose that, with the involvement of the Northern and Baltic fleets, the Russian Navy should restore its permanent presence there,” RIA Novosti quoted Masorin as saying.

The development has already startled Israel, where the Yediot Aharonotcame out with a front-page headline, “The Russians are Coming.” Israel fears that Russia could use the bases as intelligence centres to share information with countries like Iran.

Masorin revealed that Russia has also ordered key components for the Bulava-M missile, designed for a new generation of nuclear submarines. These intercontinental missiles were successfully test launched June 29 from a submarine in the White Sea to the Far East Kamchatka. This move served to boost a key component of Russia’s strategic forces was immediately interpreted as a response to the U.S. plan aiming to install 10 missile interceptors in Poland.

In a separate development, meanwhile, the S-400 Triumph missile defense system went into combat alert in the Moscow region, Alexander Selin, Commander in Chief of Russia’s Air Force, announced Monday. Designed to destroy aircraft made with Stealth technology, small cruise and tactical missiles, and warheads, the S-400, which operates from the town of Eletrostal, is intended to protect Moscow from missile threats. Combined, the new moves showed that Moscow was taking its words regarding an asymmetric and effective response very seriously.

We are facing the growing pains of a war of colossal effect, Russia is preparing for a war they are expecting while the world stands by in idle witnessing with blind eyes and deaf ears not wanting to believe the new reality. Armageddon is knocking by the door.