Bibi is Back

The leader of the right-winged party “Likud”,  Benjamin Netanyahu, took an oath together with his colleagues on the new Israeli government. Netanyahu, commonly known as Bibi, has already been the head of Israel’s government from 1996 to 1999. Then he gained fame as a liberal and erudite economist and strong warrior against terrorism. But during the next votes he lost, and lost against Ehud Barak – his current defence minister.

Even before work, the Cabinet under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu was attacked by sharp critique for the record amount of ministers and their vices – a total of 30 people. According to the opponents of the new prime minister, a “blown-up” government is an unaffordable luxury for the country that is suffering (as well as the rest of the world) from the consequences of the economic crisis. Above all, that circumstance can make the work of the parliament more difficult: it turns out that out of its 120 members, only one quarter will sit in the government.

So, the new leader of the opposition, and former minister of foreign affairs Tzipi Livni has already accused Netanyahu of betrayal of his own economic principles by creating a government of an “immense” size, by introducing minister posts “on no matters” and vice-ministers “for questions about nothing”. Israeli analysts have admitted that partially Livni is right: the relatively big (by local standards) government can lose its mobility and speed of taking decisions on important questions, which under the circumstances of the crisis might be vital.

Sceptics also point out that the new government is hard to call “balanced”: with the wide representation of the right-winged block, was joined (on the rights of the minority) by the left-winged party “Avoda”, whose leader Ehud Barak has many serious disagreements with the right-winged and religious parties. This fact might cause destabilization in the Cabinet in case its members will start discussing problems that have a principal meaning for the right as well as the left.

One of such pitfalls is the building of Jewish settlements on the west bank of Jordan River – in Iudea and Samaria, territories that are occupied by mostly Arabs. Avoda isn’t just against any future building in the area, but is also calling for the destruction of current settlements, as they are an obstacle to peace with the Arabs.  At the same time the right-winged and religious parties are convinced that these lands have become Arab by mistake, and their gradual colonization by Jewish settlers would therefore bring them back as an Israeli territory. Because of that, as they think, stopping the constructions isn’t right, as it would be a betrayal of the national interests of the country. How Benjamin Netanyahu will reconcile the 2 sides, and if he will succeed in it at all will most likely be known in the near future.

So far he has offered to cooperate with the Palestinians in 3 directions: economically, politically, and culturally, According to him, it can bring back mutual trust to the bilateral relations. And the new prime minister also stated about his confidence in that the dynamical economic development of Arabic countries would help decrease the level of radicalism among the local people. But the Palestinian theme will inevitably somewhat impair Netanyahu’s relations with his partners on the international arena. EU and the U.S. has stated many times that they will remain adherents of the regulating formula “2 countries for 2 nationalities”. But the new prime minister tries to avoid that term in public appearances, that was impossible not to notice for the West. In any case, he will have to explain (mainly to Washington) what his plan in the Arabic question is, and then to agitate for it. Observers have noticed that Barack Obama, in comparison to George Bush, isn’t going to listen to only Israeli arguments, but is also ready to see the opinion of Arab and Muslim countries. This will obviously create the determination of the complexity of Netanyahu’s government’s foreign policies.

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Another problem that the new Israeli prime minister and his government will have to solve is Iran and its nuclear program. Netanyahu has stated that he will not allow Tehran to get nuclear weapons. But under the conditions, where even the U.S. is ready for a dialogue with the Islamic Republic, Jerusalem will have problems in  lobbying harsher sanctions, not talking about an armed operation against Iran. Because of that, the Israeli media has already started to estimate the possibility of a  strike on Iranian nuclear sites alone, without the participation of Americans. So far, the conclusion is: possible, but hard.

The Hamas movement (that the new prime minister has promised the worst sanctions while he still was in opposition) is still in control of Gaza. Now, in the seat of the head of government, Netanyahu must decide: should he bring to life his promises, risking the lives of soldiers and officers, or not to rouse a sleeping bear. Taking into account all other problems he has to face, he will most likely come up with a third variant.

Another nuisance is waiting the new government from the north-western direction: the dialogue with Syria about the regulation of the conflict about Golan Heights, started during the Ehud Olmert’s reign, will most likely be stopped. The positions of the old and new prime ministers in this question are cardinally different: if Olmert was ready for concessions to Damascus to bring peace, then Netanyahu believes that Golan is a territory of Israel, and period.

Basically everything that has to do with foreign policies has to be handled with extra care by the new prime minister. It has to be done because Avigdor Lieberman, the minister of foreign affairs, is a person whose diplomatic talents are mildly said, questionable.  For example, Egypt will never forget his call to bomb “to hell” the Aswan Dam. And his initiatives for the forced resettlement of Arabs from Israel to other countries has outraged the whole Arab world diaspora. For Israelis such statements could be fine, but international partners might be insulted by such words. Because of that, part of the contacts with the Arab world Netanyahu will have to carry out by himself.

Still, no matter the current and coming problems, the new Israeli prime minister, as he himself said “without delays”, is ready to start his work. We only have to wish him good luck – the economic crisis, Iran, Syria, and Hamas will definitely not let Bibi to relax.