Egypt and Us Foreign Policy
Published by Inna Tysoe on February 4, 2011 in Middle East-
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Did our foreign policy have anything to do with the Egyptian protests?
Image by Brooklyn Museum via Flickr
It is, I think, too early to try to predict what will happen in Egypt. But its’ probably not too early to look back at our foreign policy to see whether our actions may have led (even if indirectly) to the protests we see on our television today.
Adam Przeworski, the noted theorist of transitions to democracy, opined that once an authoritarian regime starts transitioning to democracy, it has to keep going. Or, as he put it in an interview once you take that first step, you have to go forward. It’s like the bicycle theory: if you don’t keep going, you fall. The reason is simple. Once an authoritarian government allows different factions to set the agenda, the people’s response is to demand greater freedoms. At which point the government must repress the populace, flee amidst anarchy, or oversee a transition to democracy.
If Przeworski is right, this raises the question of whether (or to what extent) American actions in 2005 led to what we are seeing in Egypt (and indeed, elsewhere in the Middle East) today. Let me explain. In the (now infamous 2002 axis of evil speech) then-President Bush articulated America’s commitment to democracy in the Middle East. This wasn’t just words. There was real, behind-the-scenes pressure put on authoritarian governments in the region. And the pressure worked. In 2006, the Middle East Quarterly was able to report that there is no doubt that Washington’s pressure… helped enable passage of a constitutional amendment to permit multiparty presidential elections [and] a broader mandate for judges in election oversight. Then came our failure in Iraq.
Yes, there was considerably more freedom in Iraq but also considerably more chaos. And suddenly, the airwaves were filled by calls (from the Left and the Right both) to stop this democracy in the Middle East nonsense. And the pressure wasn’t just internal either. The European Union, which has considerable business interests in the Middle East, let it be known that it prefers stability to democracy. The pressure to stop the democracy nonsense worked. Or, as Secretary of State Clinton said when discussing military aid to Egypt in 2009 while the Administration is supportive of human rights, the foreign military financing should be without conditions. In other words, we were of course going to pay lip service to reforms in Egypt but that is all it would be; lip service.
But in the meantime, the people had gotten a taste (although a little taste) of greater freedom. And, just as Przeworski predicted, they wanted more. For all the bashing they have taken recently, it appears that American intelligence reports began to warn that unrest in Egypt would probably gain momentum a while back. We simply chose not to listen.
My advice to our policy makers is to listen now. If nothing else we may get a better idea of the kinds of consequences our actions (and inactions) may have.
interesting post.
Great post! And equally great that someone realises how US foreign policy has destabilised the world and caused suffering, war and human tragedies.
excellent; but I would dare to say that while the US gave the impetus to start, it was the EU with its stalling order which precipitated things in the direction we are now heading …
isn’t it fascinating that politicians always think that stagnation equals stability?
Oh goodness, it’s about time this all got sorted out and with the least amount of bloodshed possible please.
I can’t believe what I am reading.
Stability preferred over freedom?
Yup, that is Big Business talking.
People want to have a say in their lives, that is what democracy offers. That ’stability’ you mention means that people just obey or go to jail.
Shame on you for forgetting that you are safely in a free country, while they still stone people to death in these places.
nice article
@TrevorS: I am not sure that US foreign policy Caused the unrest in the Middle east. It\’s at least equally plausible to say that Al Jazeera Caused the unrest there. (I am assuming that\’s what you mean by suffering?). However, by putting pressure on Mubarak\’s and Saudis\’ and other regimes to democratize the US Helped (briefly) create a space where people could organize. Then the cameras were gone, policy did not change so much but was not enforced, and that space was closed. But people (the same people who watch al Jazeera) remembered….There were a lot of factors at work. Price of bread, Al Jazeera, the briefly relatively free elections. I only emphasize out the role we played because that is the one that concerns me the most.
@LewSthetics:
“Shame on you for forgetting that you are safely in a free country, while they still stone people to death in these places.”
I am certainly not forgetting that. But one of the freedoms the protesters who are aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood want is to stone their wives and daughters.
Very insightful article. Makes me think a lot.
It looks like the call of the majority to me, and in my book it is right that the west ,and I mean every democratic country in the free world should stand up and be counted… like the brave people of Egypt, this is not American, or western people in the square it is the old, young, and joe bloggs… shouting for what for to long we have taken for granted, it is not that long we don’t forget that the same thing happened in China, and far too many just stood by, and done and said nothing, and we know what happened there is that what we want now? I for one do not I’m sorry if you do not have the same opinion but then that is your democratic right to disagree even with your government… cheers a very good write
The freedom to vote has to come first, or there won’t be any change. Sharia Law has to be stamped out of existence. There should be no second class citizens, or caste systems, or any laws that legalize inequality. Punishments should be humane.
BTW, it always scares the hell out of me when I see rows upon rows of the backs of grown men kneeling in prayer. Looks like spiritual slavery to me.
@ yes me & LewSthetics: We are not the ones who should stamp out Sharia law. It’s not up to us to decide. Unless we plan to invade Egypt over it? And likewise it’s not up up us to help the Egyptians decide who their government is going to be. Unless again, we plan to invade Egypt? Not standing by and doing something about either Mubarak or Sharia really does boil down to the same thing–invading Egypt. Not a course I’d recommend.
PS: I should note that we have no idea what’s going to happen in Egypt–all sorts of people are out in the streets; not just those associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Heck, even Mubarak’s NDP has a constituency. Not as big a constituency as the NDP claims but a sizable one nonetheless. So it’s waay to early to predict what Egyptians will decide their government is going to be.