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Usually, only one human swine influenza virus occurs every one to two years. However, from December 2005 to February 2009, 12 cases of human infection have been reported. Just recently, in Mexico, over 1,000 cases have been reported, 68 people have died and eight cases in the U.S. have been reported as yet. Could we have a pandemic on our hands?


We do not yet have enough information to make the determination as to whether this will turn out to be a pandemic.  The CDC (Centers for Disease Control) is taking this one very seriously, nonetheless.  In Mexico City, authorities are closing most public places to include schools, museums and concerts.  Many are staying at home out of fear of catching the virus. 

The eight cases of infection in the U.S. have been in Texas and California, all of which have recovered.  On Thursday, April 23, a group of doctors from the state health department visited St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens, New York to test 75 students that have exhibited flu-like symptoms in the past week.  Swine flu has not been confirmed in this instance and test results are expected back by Saturday the 25th.

To explain the the potential threat these recent cases present to all of us, one must understand the history and evolution of the influenza virus.  The symptoms of the influenza virus were first described by Hippocrates over 2,400 years ago.  It is hard to tell, however, if what he described actually was, in fact, the influenza virus due to so many other viruses causing similar symptoms.

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The first sure record of an influenza pandemic took place in 1580.  Beginning in Russia and spreading through Africa and then into Europe, it wiped out several Spanish cities and killed over 8,000 people in Rome.  Various pandemics occurred throughout the next 300 years.  Even with that, these pale in comparison to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 and 1919. 

The Spanish flu in 1918 was truly a global pandemic with cases reported even in the Arctic.  This was mainly due to the troops returning home from WWI where the exchange of the virus initially took place.  This was the largest pandemic we have known of in recorded history killing at least 22 million and possibly up to as much as 100 million people.  Take a look at this video below from the Discovery Channel explaining the impact of the Spanish flu of 1918.

Why do these pandemics occur sporadically throughout time?  What causes them to be such a major threat to us?  The answer is evolution.  This is the most fundamental example of the process of evolution happening right under our noses.  The influenza type A virus, known as H1N1, is highly adaptable and has mutated into different strains to infect different species of animals to include humans.

We depend on our immune system to fight of viruses and infections.  When our immune system is confronted by a particular virus it creates the antibodies needed to attack and erradicate it.  However, when it is confronted by a completely new virus it is unfamiliar with, it can not create the specific antibodies needed to defend against it because it has never had to before.

Our immune systems have to “catch up” to the virus, so to speak.  While our immune systems are catching up to the specific strain of virus, we are defenseless and our bodies quickly give in to it.  We can now fight off the Spanish flu because we have had almost a century for our immune systems to adapt to it.  When the influenza virus that infects humans mixes genetically with the strain that infects birds, it can be very dangerous for us because that would be a new strain that our immune systems are not familiar with.

The H5N1 virus, which is a specific strain of influenza, is also known as the Avian or Bird flu.  The world held their breath in 1997 when an outbreak of Bird flu claimed many lives in southeast Asia.  The big question that held our possible fate in the balance was if it had mutated to be transmissible between humans.  Thankfully, it had not, but history tells us that it is more than possible and, in fact, is eventually inevitable.

The mutated strain of Swine flu we are currently being affected by is one the CDC has never seen before containing genetic traces of human, swine and avian influenza.  What makes the outlook even more dire is the fact that this particular strain has resisted most antiviral drugs already.  The U.S. has not officially issued any travel alert to the general public yet whereas Canada has. 

The world’s growing population and frequency of travel increases the risk of a pandemic considerably.  With that said, two factors could spell disaster for us.  First, it must resist all antiviral drugs, which it has proved to be fairly resistant already.  Secondly, this mutation must be easily passed from human to human through airborne transmission like a cold.  We are still unsure about these facts and more time is needed to verify them.  With over 1,000 in Mexico City already infected, it does not look very promising.

The only thing we can do now is hope this strain does not mutate to the above criteria and we can become educated as to how we can best protect ourselves from it.  We know that this is a natural process and some even think that it is a natural way to keep our population in balance with nature.  Maybe it is, either way, it is only prudent to learn about how to prevent possibilities of transmission.  Only time will tell just how serious this risk is going to be for us.